Analyzing Global Impacts and Advancing Mitigation Strategies for Climate Change-induced Migration

Introduction

The issue of climate migration is a complex and pressing matter that remains unaddressed on a global scale. It is worth noting that no country currently offers asylum or legal protection to those displaced by climate-related factors. The primary challenge lies in establishing climate change as the primary or sole reason for migration, leaving climate migrants with limited options under existing international laws. Unlike refugees, who are protected by the 1951 U.N. Refugee Convention, climate migrants do not fit within this definition. Refugees are individuals who have been displaced due to a well-founded fear of persecution or harm in their home country, and they are entitled to international protection. However, climate migrants exist in a unique category, facing legal gaps and struggling to receive recognition for their situation.

As migrants face numerous challenges, including human rights violations and risks during border crossings, it is imperative to recognize climate change as a primary driver of displacement and understand its far-reaching consequences. Effective policy formulation and humanitarian efforts hinge on this recognition. We contribute to a more sustainable and fair global future by tackling climate-induced migration. Therefore, studying the impact of climate change on international migration is crucial for several reasons: comprehending the complexity of human mobility, recognizing various forms of cross-border movement, predicting future migration patterns, crafting appropriate policy responses, considering economic, social, and political ramifications, promptly addressing challenges, and ensuring the well-being of future generations. 

Research indicates that the consequences of migration due to climate change have emerged as a significant and immediate security concern. They not only precipitate instability, conflict, and violence but also exacerbate social discord and breaches of law. On a broader scale, they engender humanitarian crises, transnational criminal activities, and the potential for international terrorism, necessitating comprehensive defense and security strategies.

In this blog, I cover the intricate dynamics of climate change-induced migration. I will explore the importance of understanding climate refugees within the broader context of global migration, addressing their definition, legal complexities, and the profound impact of migration on societies worldwide. I will also analyze various mitigation strategies to address this pressing issue and discuss why studying climate refugees is significant.

The Significance of Climate-Induced Migration: Projections and Global Concerns

Research unequivocally demonstrates that climate change is a potent catalyst for migration, significantly increasing the number of people vulnerable to displacement.

The scale of climate change-related migration is staggering, with projections indicating that by 2050, nearly three percent of the global population (over 143 million individuals) in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America could be compelled to relocate within their country of origin, as per a Reliefweb report on the Impact of Climate Change on Migration released in October 2021. 

Similarly, the World Bank report underscores the urgency of climate change-induced refugee migration as a pressing global issue that demands immediate attention. The report’s findings are stark: Approximately 184 million individuals, constituting 2.3 percent of the world’s population, currently reside outside their country of citizenship. Migration trends are increasingly influenced by numerous factors, such as climate change, conflict, demographic shifts, and income inequality. Here are some examples of analysis that suggest climate change will impact various issues, from state instability and border conflicts to energy and food security. The United States has identified climate change as a threat that vastly eclipses that of terrorism and argued that abrupt climate change must be considered a national security issue. Climate change was further integrated into United States security doctrine in several significant ways during 2010 (Mabey, Nick, et al. 2011; A Clear and Present Danger: How Climate Change Impacts Security). 

-The impacts of Himalayan melting will be felt across several countries, including Nepal, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and China. This could create a geopolitical domino effect that aggravates the fragile political, social, and economic system. For example, water disputes could arise between India and Pakistan.

Understanding and Defining Climate-Induced Migration

Understanding climate-related migration is complex because it involves different types of movement: within a country or across borders, short or long distances, temporary or permanent stays, and quick or gradual environmental changes. This includes people forced to move due to disasters, those choosing to move because of environmental issues, and those deciding to stay or leave affected areas (Mence, Victoria, and Alex Parrinder, 2017; Environmentally Related International Migration: Policy Challenges). This comprehensive understanding informs policymaking in both origin and destination countries. 

The terminology surrounding climate-induced displacement is diverse and often used interchangeably. Let’s explore some of the key terms:

Environment-induced migrants: 

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) prefers the term “environmentally induced migrants” defined as “persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or chose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad (Elliotte, Lorraine, editor, 2012; Human Security, Climate Change and Migration in Southeast Asia). 

The author asserts that this migration presents a formidable challenge in regions with lower socioeconomic status. This phenomenon impacts ecological, sociocultural, and political spheres. Governmental bodies, academics, and non-governmental organizations widely acknowledge its correlation with environmental security. 

Although international law does not define climate migration, climate-induced migration falls within the sub-category of environmental migration. 

Like environmental migration, climate-induced migration can describe temporary or permanent movement, voluntary or forced, internal or cross-border.

Climate Refugee: 

This term broadly refers to people forced to leave their homes due to climate change and global warming impacts. However, there is no universally accepted legal definition for “climate refugees (National Geographic Society, 2016). They become climate refugees because of natural events such as volcanic eruptions and human activities. It encompasses both internal and cross-border migration.

Environmental Refugee: 

Environmental refugees are individuals displaced due to environmental factors, including climate change. These factors may include rising sea levels, extreme weather events, desertification, and resource scarcity. The term emphasizes the role of environmental degradation in displacement.

Climate-Related Migrants

This term encompasses a broader range of people affected by climate change. It includes those forcibly displaced and those who migrate voluntarily due to changing environmental conditions. Climate-related migrants may move within their own country or across borders.

Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)

IDPs are individuals who have been forced to flee their homes but remain within their own country. Climate-induced displacement contributes significantly to the IDP population.

An article related to Climate-induced Migration and Free Movement Agreements written by Francis Ama and published in the Journal of International Affairs in 2019 describes climate-induced migration occurring mainly within national borders over short distances, while wealthier and more educated migrants tend to cross national boundaries. The author further explains that policy experts identify five categories of movement: i) migration prompted by sudden-onset disasters, such as flooding and hurricanes, which tends to be temporary and internal; ii) slow-onset degradation, for example, rising sea levels, increased groundwater, or soil salinization, which often results in permanent migration; iii) “sinking” small island states, which present a unique case of slow-onset disasters wherein rising sea levels combined with low-lying island topography render islands uninhabitable; iv) high-risk zones that governments declare dangerous for human habitation; and v) forced displacement due to violence, armed conflict, or unrest because of a scarcity of essential resources like water, arable land, or grazing grounds.

The author further highlights that adverse environmental impacts do not lead to migration in a linear way across all categories. Empirical studies have shown that economic, social, and political drivers, alongside environmental indicators, factor into the decision to move or stay. 

Navigating Legal Recognition and Protection Amid Climate-Induced Migration Challenges

There are currently no legal protections for ‘climate refugees.’ Additionally, a debate exists on whether to characterize those displaced by environmental degradation, climate change, and natural disasters as ‘climate refugees’ or ‘climate migrants’ (Anxhela Mile; Protecting Climate Migrants: A Gap in International Asylum Law, 7 January 2021).

While various terms exist to describe climate migrants, the lack of a universally accepted definition complicates matters. Existing international legal frameworks, such as the 1951 U.N. Refugee Convention, do not explicitly cover climate refugees, leaving climate migrants outside the legal protections afforded to refugees. The world is ill-prepared to handle the complexities of climate migration, and no country currently offers asylum or legal protection specifically for climate migrants. The main challenge lies in identifying climate change as the sole or primary reason for migration, which leaves climate migrants with limited options under existing international laws. 

Unlike refugees, who are protected by the 1951 U.N. Refugee Convention, climate migrants do not fit this definition. They fall into a distinct category, facing legal gaps and struggling to gain recognition for their situation. Meanwhile, the migration policy remains a subject of heated debate. Despite studies showing positive effects of migration on labor markets, business performance, and health outcomes in host countries, public opinion often views immigration with fear and apprehension (The World Bank, December 11, 2023; Global Migration in the 21st Century, Navigating the Impact of Climate Change, Conflict, and Demographic Shifts). 

The United States uses “climate-related migrants” as a legal designation. According to a White House report released in October 2021, climate change-related migration (referred to as internal climate migration) is defined as migration primarily influenced by the gradual effects of climate change on livelihoods due to changes in water resources and agricultural productivity or by factors like rising sea levels or storm surges. Similarly, the report defines climate migrants as individuals who relocate within their own country or internationally due to climate change-induced migration.

The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), which is the primary international authority on decisions made for refugees it is also responsible for their temporary and long-term integration, states that the terms “environmental refugee” and “climate refugee” lack grounding in international law. Their usage may blur the distinction between environmental factors and persecution, risking the erosion of established refugee protection norms (Mence, Victoria, and Alex Parrinder, 2017; Environmentally Related International Migration: Policy Challenges). 

Understanding the Intersections and Impacts

The impacts of climate change, including sea level rise, heat waves, storms, droughts, and wildfires, will significantly influence global migration. According to an article published by the Columbia Climate School, 40.5 million people across the planet were displaced in 2020—the most in 10 years. Similarly, it highlights that climate change may force 30 to 143 million individuals from their homes by 2050 due to its impacts (Renee Cho, May 2021, Climate Migration: An Impending Global Challenge; Columbia Climate School). The research explores how climate change leads to the depletion of essential resources, such as water and fertile land, forcing people to seek refuge elsewhere. Resource scarcity may drive conflict directly and induce migration of populations in vulnerable situations, attempting to secure safety or livelihoods elsewhere.

Furthermore, this research emphasizes how alterations in biodiversity strongly intersect with climate change, which can impact migration and jeopardize food and economic security. Similarly, other reasons contributing to refugee migration resulting from climate change encompass air pollution and associated health risks, challenges in agriculture, desertification, and land degradation. More frequent and severe weather events, like floods and storms, displace communities and disrupt livelihoods, while coastal areas face inundation, compelling residents to relocate. Climate-related air pollution affects health, prompting migration to areas with better air quality. Crop failures due to changing climate patterns impact livelihoods and drive migration, with expanding deserts and loss of arable land forcing people to move in search of better conditions.

In this context, the UNHCR, a leading international organization, has identified that as extreme weather events worsen due to global heating, they contribute to multiple crises, threatening human rights, increasing poverty, straining peaceful relations, and ultimately creating conditions for forced displacement (UNHCR, Strategic Plan for Climate Action 2024-2030).

Climate-affected Countries

Climate change significantly impacts various countries globally, with a notable concentration in certain regions. Approximately 70 percent of the people affected by climate-induced migration reside in eight Asian countries: China, Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, and Japan. Furthermore, countries facing significant challenges due to conflict and climate change also accommodate substantial refugees and displaced individuals. These nations include regions such as the Eastern Horn of Africa—including refugees in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. Similarly, other countries include Afghanistan, Ecuador, Honduras, Peru, and Maldives (UNHCR, December 21, 2023; Natural Disasters, Storms, and Droughts: The Top Climate Emergency for Refugees).

Similarly, the Global Risk Index 2021 highlights that the countries most affected by climate change in 2019 were Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and the Bahamas. Likewise, from 2000 to 2019, Puerto Rico, Myanmar, and Haiti ranked highest in vulnerability. Similarly, Burundi, Yemen, Colombia, and Syria face significant challenges related to climate change. 

Navigating Legal Frameworks and Policies for Climate Refugees: A Global Perspective

The acceptance and protection of climate refugees vary across countries. For example, New Zealand has implemented a labor migration scheme known as the Pacific Access Category (PAC). Through this agreement, New Zealand provides opportunities for labor migration to citizens of Pacific Island nations such as Fiji, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Kiribati (Suong Vong, May 2017; Humanity in Action in the USA: Protecting Climate Refugees is Crucial for the Future).  

Countries such as the United States, France, Germany, Canada, Russia, and the UK are known for their willingness to welcome refugees. Yet, there remains a notable absence of explicit policies regarding accepting climate refugees. Presently, the United States lacks a well-defined and direct pathway for accommodating climate refugees. Within the current framework of U.S. legislation, individuals affected by climate change can seek asylum or refugee status only if they can substantiate that their primary reason for fleeing their home country is persecution based on factors such as race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a specific social group. However, the nature of climate change often does not align with these established criteria, thereby leaving climate migrants with few viable legal avenues. In this context, the host countries lack established alternative avenues to supplement refugee resettlement, through which individuals confronting life-threatening situations due to climate change can be permanently admitted, addressing their need for protection. 

Policy Initiatives and Executive Actions Addressing Climate Migrations in the United States

Amidst the absence of new legislation, there are growing calls for the Biden Administration to leverage its executive authority to extend aid and protection to those displaced by climate change worldwide.

This could involve the granting of “Parole” to migrants who would otherwise be ineligible, allowing them to legally stay in the country on humanitarian grounds (Aydali Campa, May 21, 2022, Inside Climate News: Climate Migrants Seeking Asylum in the U.S. Lack a Clear Path to Refugee Status). This potential use of executive authority could significantly impact the lives of climate migrants, offering them a legal pathway to seek aid and protection.

One step forward, President Biden signed Executive Order (E.O.) 14013 on February 9, 2021, titled “Rebuilding and Enhancing Programs to Resettle Refugees and Planning for the Impact of Climate Change on Migration.” This directive instructed the National Security Advisor to compile a report on climate change and its effects on migration. This report represents the inaugural instance of the U.S. Government formally addressing the connection between climate change and migration (The White House, Report on the Impact of Climate Change on Migration, October 2021). This report signifies the initial occasion when the U.S. Government formally addresses the correlation between climate change and migration.

The Complex Nexus of Climate Change and Migration: Implications for Security and Conflict

Climate-induced migration carries significant implications for global security, stability, conflict, and geopolitics. Distinguishing climate change as a distinct factor in migration decisions is challenging due to its intertwining with various other drivers. Understanding the indirect connections between climate change and these drivers poses further difficulties. The White House’s October 2021 report underscores that climate-related impacts can exacerbate the vulnerability of communities, heightening the potential for conflict and displacement if preventive measures are lacking. Conversely, conflicts can compound the risks faced by marginalized communities displaced by climate-related impacts. The report emphasizes that extreme weather events and conflict stand as the primary drivers of forced displacement worldwide, collectively forcing nearly 30 million people to flee their homes annually.

Similarly, A British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) report explores that hundreds of millions of individuals will be compelled to evacuate their residences by 2050 without intervention. Additionally, it notes that by 2070, based on scenarios of population expansion and warming, “between one and three billion people are predicted to inhabit regions with climate conditions that historically sustained human life over the past 6,000 years (Baia Vince: How borders might change to cope with climate migration, November 17, 2022). 

Another study carried out by the Center for Migration Studies (CMS) found that a climate model analyzing migration trends triggered by temperature rises in Central America suggests that “under the most extreme climate scenarios, over the next thirty years, more than 30 million migrants could head towards the US border” (Mara A Mahmud: Centre for Migration Studies, Dec 15, 2022). 

Rethinking Assumptions in International Migration Governance

International migration governance is a critical endeavor that grapples with the complexities of migration in our interconnected world. This special issue delves into the entangled inequalities and disruptive global events that shape migration dynamics within the context of ongoing geopolitical and pandemic crises. 

Migration governance cannot be viewed in isolation. It intersects with societal, political, and environmental factors. The pandemic, climate change, and racial justice movements all impact migration patterns and policies. One compelling reality is the growing recognition of climate migration as a significant factor driving human movement. As the impacts of climate change intensify, traditional frameworks must adapt to accommodate those displaced by environmental factors.

The COVID-19 pandemic has also highlighted the interconnectedness of global mobility and public health, prompting a reassessment of border policies and healthcare access for migrants. Moreover, the rise of digital technologies has transformed labor markets and communication channels, necessitating updated labor migration and integration approaches. In this evolving landscape, reexamining assumptions and embracing innovative solutions is essential for effective and humane governance of international migration. Effective governance involves managing cross-border migration flows. Cooperation between countries of origin, transit, and destination is crucial. Borders should not be barriers to human rights.

Policies must recognize migrants’ contributions and enable their integration into society. Access to essential services and opportunities should be extended to all, regardless of their migration status. 

Rethinking migration governance requires alternative epistemological and methodological approaches. For example, the existing international framework for displaced individuals, migrants, and refugees rests on a flawed assumption: that migrants will return to their home countries once crises subside. This assumption shapes the rights and responsibilities of migrants and those of countries of origin, transit, and hosting. However, this model neglects the reality of climate-induced migration, where environmental degradation renders return impossible. Traditional refugee classifications falter in such cases, requiring new terminology like “survival migrants” and innovative legal frameworks in future international governance systems (Kraemer, R. Andreas: The G20 and Building Global Governance for Climate Refugees, Centre for International Governance Innovation, 2017). 

Internationally, proposed and existing policies encompass frameworks grounded in refugee protection, complementary protection, establishing new international agreements, safeguarding internally displaced individuals, and regionally focused strategies. However, none of these solutions has effectively tackled the core challenge of conceptualizing environmentally-related migration to accommodate its diverse contexts (Mence, Victoria, and Alex Parrinder; Environmentally Related International Migration: Policy Challenges.” A Long Way to Go: Irregular Migration Patterns, Processes, Drivers, and Decision-Making, 2017).  

Strategies to Help Minimize Climate-related Migration

-Indigenous knowledge holds immense potential in addressing climate-induced migration due to the crucial role indigenous peoples play in safeguarding 80 percent of global diversity despite representing only five percent of the world’s population (Source: “How Indigenous Knowledge Can Help Combat Climate Change,” The Climate Reality Project, August 04, 2021). Indigenous communities widely embrace a worldview that perceives nature as interconnected and sentient, viewing the environment as kin rather than separate from humans. This holistic perspective cultivates deep respect and care for natural systems, guiding sustainable practices that ultimately mitigate the need for climate-induced migration. Similarly, indigenous knowledge inspires climate-adaptive humanitarian aid for vulnerable populations. Utilizing best practices from indigenous knowledge can guide relief efforts in climate-vulnerable areas (Balaji Seshasayee. Indigenous knowledge can help address climate change, Feb. 2019).

-Natural climate solutions mitigate climate change and improve livelihoods, safeguard ecosystems, and foster a more sustainable future for everyone, reducing the need for climate-induced migration. Moreover, these solutions harmonize with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SDG 13 (Climate Action) underscores the significance of combating climate change to secure a sustainable future for all. By adopting these measures, we strive towards a world where climate-induced migration is significantly curtailed.

Invest in innovative data collection and monitoring by understanding local climate impacts and migration patterns through robust data collection. Monitor slow-onset events (like droughts) and small-scale events (such as floods) to anticipate migration triggers (Displacement Monitoring Center-IDMC, 10 Ways to Tackle Climate Displacement in the Run-Up to 2030, Dec. 02, 2020).

-Early warning systems can help mitigate risks associated with climate-related hazards, such as storms, floods, and droughts. Effective implementation of such systems can enable timely evacuation when necessary.

-Climate-resilient infrastructure, such as flood defenses, storm shelters, and resilient housing, is crucial for protecting climate-affected populations. Investing in climate adaptation and resilience measures is akin to providing communities with a robust shield against environmental upheavals, reducing the need for displacement.

-Promoting sustainable land use practices and resilient urban planning can help minimize the impact of climate change on communities, reduce vulnerability, and ensure safe living conditions for migrants.

-Providing climate-related information, education, and communication tools to vulnerable communities empowers them to make informed decisions about migration, adaptation, and risk reduction strategies.

-Establishing social protection programs, including cash transfers, food assistance, and health services, can help alleviate the socio-economic impacts of climate-related migration and ensure the well-being of affected populations.

-Developing inclusive legal frameworks and rights-based approaches that protect the rights and dignity of climate-related migrants is essential for ensuring their safety and security. Such frameworks should allow access to asylum and legal assistance.

-Strengthening international cooperation, solidarity, and support mechanisms, including financial assistance, capacity-building, and technology transfer, is critical for effectively addressing the global challenges of climate-related migration. Collaborate with local communities and journalists to document the stories of climate witnesses.

– Existing international legislation, such as the 1951 Geneva Convention, does not adequately cover climate-induced displacement. So, climate justice campaigns should promote a clear definition of climate refugees. Such campaigns can advocate for the full implementation of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It signifies the aim to limit the increase in global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels to mitigate the most severe impacts of climate change, which can help minimize the environmental refugee globally. 

-Climate financing plays a critical role in aiding vulnerable communities in responding to, preparing for, and adapting to the risks posed by climate change and migration. In this context, utilizing space-based technology data to grasp climate science, monitoring, and early warning systems is essential. Increased investment in adaptation, risk reduction, and resilience-building efforts will alleviate the pressure on humanitarian assistance during disasters.

-Facilitate orderly, safe, and responsible migration for people affected by climate change (Mile, Anxhela Jan 2021; Protectin Climate Migrants: A Gap in International Asylum Law).

-Integrate human mobility challenges into national planning processes. Climate migration should be part of broader development and disaster risk reduction strategies.

Backing refugee-run organizations is vital as they are instrumental in addressing community requirements. These organizations possess the most profound understanding of their communities and frequently establish self-help initiatives in their host nations. By bolstering these groups, we can empower them to assist their communities better and secure enduring viability.

-Encourage regular migration pathways in climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies

Summary

The global response to climate-induced migration remains inadequate, with many nations, including the United States, lacking sufficient political commitment to address the plight of climate refugees. This reluctance is particularly evident when there is an issue that does not directly affect them, overshadowed by the existing refugee crises stemming from war and conflict. Advocates advocate for more inclusive policies to address this pressing reality.

Meanwhile, destination countries grapple with hosting migrants, while origin countries, especially least developed ones, face challenges like brain drain and education system costs. With migration projected to rise, effective policymaking becomes crucial for origin and destination nations. Recognizing that climate-driven migration is an immediate reality impacting millions of lives globally is essential. It necessitates prompt action to alleviate human suffering and mitigate socioeconomic and geopolitical consequences.

A paradigm shift is urged, moving from security-centric approaches to prioritizing the rights and well-being of climate migrants, particularly refugees and asylum seekers. Instead of merely integrating climate change into security discourses, a more conscious effort is needed to link climate change challenges with adaptation, resilience, and sustainable development strategies. Climate change and migration policies must grasp the complexities of migration as an adaptive response to social, economic, and environmental pressures.

List of References:

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